Oscar Predictions: The rest for 2015

Last time on Sir Critic's Oscar predictions, I forecasted the techs. Today, on a very special Sir Critic, I move up the latter to ... well, to all the others.

Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall in “The Judge”

Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”

Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”

J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

WILL/SHOULD WIN: J.K. Simmons

Actress

Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”

Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”

Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”

Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”

Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore

Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”

Laura Dern in “Wild”

Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”

Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

WILL WIN: Arquette
SHOULD WIN: Stone.

I've bunched three of the four acting categories together because three of the four are all but slam dunks. If Arquette, Moore and Simmons don't win their categories, the stock of oxygen tank manufacturers will rise sharply.

Actor

Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”

Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”

Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”

Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

WILL WIN: This is a very, very, very close race between Keaton and Redmaye. Redmayne won the SAG, Keaton is a respected veteran making a hell of a comeback. But I tip to Redmayne, because his is the sort of showy, transformative performance that often wins. 

SHOULD WIN: Keaton.

Animated Feature

“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli

“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight

“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold

“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young

“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Like the Toy Story sequels, Dragon 2 doesn't just repeat a successful formula but expands and enriches the story. Big Hero 6 could win here too, but Dragon has a stronger emotional core. 

Adapted Screenplay

“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall

“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore

“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten

“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Whiplash - partly because goofy Academy rules cheated it and called it adapted when it was really original. And partly because it plays mind games that dance inside your head for days. 

Could win: Imitation Game is the only real threat, and I don't sense enough passion behind it. As well done as it is, it's almost too traditional. Whiplash is much more daring. 

Original Screenplay

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo

“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater

“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness

“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

WILL WIN: This is a tight three-way race, but I believe Grand Budapest comes out ahead here because this category has a history of awarding the auteur who probably won't win the Best Director Prize.

COULD WIN: Birdman or Boyhood could easily take it. This one's a tough call.  

SHOULD WIN: Boyhood. If you believe it's only real trick is in how it was assembled, you aren't paying attention. 

Documentary Feature

“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky

“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel

“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester

“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier

“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

WILL WIN: CitzenFour's footage of Edward Snowden, just after he opened Pandora's box of secrets,  is just too startling to be ignored. 

Documentary Short Subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry

“Joanna” Aneta Kopacz

“Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki

“The Reaper (La Parka)” Gabriel Serra Arguello

“White Earth” J. Christian Jensen

WILL WIN: I'm handicapped on the shorts this year, having only seen the Animated block. So when in doubt, go with HBO. That's Crisis Hotline. 

Foreign Language Film

“Ida” Poland

“Leviathan” Russia

“Tangerines” Estonia

“Timbuktu” Mauritania

“Wild Tales” Argentina

WILL WIN: The film with other nominations tends to win. Ida.  

Animated Short Film

“The Bigger Picture” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees

“The Dam Keeper” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi

“Feast” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed

“Me and My Moulton” Torill Kove

“A Single Life” Joris Oprins

WILL WIN: "The Bigger Picture" seems to be getting most of the attention, though it was actually my least favorite of the batch. 

SHOULD WIN: The charming, poignant, "Dam Keeper," about an unlikely friendship between a pig and a fox. 

Live Action Short Film

“Aya” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis

“Boogaloo and Graham” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney

“Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)” Hu Wei and Julien Féret

“Parvaneh” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger

“The Phone Call” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

SHOULD WIN: Toss-up. The Phone Call, if only because it has recognizable faces in former winner/nominee Jim Broadbent and Sally Hawkins.  

Director

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu

“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson

“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

WILL WIN: This is a race between the auteur who pulled off a hell of a visual stunt (Inarritu) and the auteur who pulled off a one-of-a-kind filmmaking feat. The directing category tends toward the strongly visual, e.g. Gravity and Life of Pi. So it shall be with Birdman. 

SHOULD WIN: Linklater

Best Picture

“American Sniper” 

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” 

“Boyhood” 

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Jeremy Dawson, Producers

“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers

“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers

“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers

“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

WILL/SHOULD WIN: This is a race between the auteur who pulled off a hell of a visual stunt (Inarritu) and the auteur who pulled off a one-of-a-kind filmmaking feat. But when it comes to the battle between the head and the heart, the heart tends to win. (See The King's Speech vs. The Social Network). Boyhood is all heart. 

Oscar Predictions 2015: The Techs (Sound and Vision)

We'll kick off the predictions this year by doing the limbo and going below the line with the craft categories. And this year, I'll list the dark horse if I think there is one. That way, I look a lot more savvy than I actually am.

Cinematography
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Lubezki

This is a frighteningly easy call. Birdman's "One-take" camerawork dominated ever since it was first seen. Perennial beloved nominee Deakins will just have to keep waiting.

Costume Design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice” Mark Bridges
“Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner” Jacqueline Durran

Production Design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game” Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods” Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner” Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Grand Budapest Hotel
DARK HORSE: Into the Woods (costumes)

There's a reason I lumped Costume and Production Design together. Grand Budapest Hotel is easily going to win both. Wes Anderson's movies are always designed to the Nth degre, and Budapest boasts some of the most intricate designs of all.

Film Editing
“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Whiplash

DARK HORSE: Boyhood

This one is a fairly close race between Whiplash and Boyhood. Boyhood's elegant weaving of a 12-year story filmed piecemeal is truly impressive for the way it shows the passage of time without any obvious signposts. But when in doubt, go the Best Picture nominee with the most visible editing: That's Whiplash, which so expertly builds tension that watching the movie jangles the nerves, even without J.K. Simmons' formidable presence. 

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Foxcatcher” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

WILL WIN: Grand Budpest
SHOULD WIN/DARK HORSE: Guardians of the Galaxy.

This award often goes to the Most Makeup, which would be Guardians of the Galaxy. On the other hand, that didn't exactly help the Hobbit and Harry Potter films when they made this race. So I'm betting Budapest gets this win to go along with its Set and Costume Awards. Again, designed to the Nth degree.

Original Score
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson

WILL WIN: Theory of Everything
SHOULD WIN: Grand Budapest Hotel

Conventional wisdom may have it that the prolific Desplat will finally get his due, but lush and melodramatic often tends to win the day here. That's Theory of Everything.

Original Song
“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“Glory” from “Selma”
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

WILL WIN: Glory
SHOULD WIN/DARK HORSE:   Everything is Awesome

It's not inconceivable that Everything is Awesome could win here, since many people were aghast that The LEGO Movie didn't score an animated film nomination. And it IS the best use of a song within the actual movie. (I grow weary of slapping a song on the end credits and having that be the nominee, as is the case with Selma's admittedly stirring song.) But since Selma missed out on a lot of big nominations, and because Glory has picked up some precursor awards, that wins.

Sound Editing
“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar” Richard King
“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Sound Mixing
“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

WILL WIN: American Sniper takes both of these, as war films often do. Helps that the film is a tremendous hit. I imagine most voters will look at their ballots and say, "Sound? American Sniper for both."
SHOULD WIN: Interstellar. I don't buy into the line of a muddled mix drowning out the dialogue. I thought it was an artful mix that amplified the emotions of the scene, and sometimes that entails disorientation and not being quite sure of what you heard.


Visual Effects
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Interstellar is a movie that has gone severely underappreciated in its time - but not when it comes to its effects.

Oscar Predix: Best Picture

Here's how I rank the Oscar nominees, from most likely to least likely to win:

1. Argo
2. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Lincoln
4. Life of Pi
5. Les Miserables
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. Zero Dark Thirty
8. Amour
9. Django Unchained

And here's how I personally rank the Oscar nominees, from best to least:

1. Argo
2. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Lincoln
4. Life of Pi
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Django Unchained
7. Les Miserables
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Amour 

 Keep an eye on this page for another important ranking: My ten best films of 2012

Oscar Predix: Sight and Sound

Time to close up the Oscar predictions with the technical categories. Many people think these are boring, but think of it this way - without these, there wouldn't be anything to hear or see.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: I really want Thomas Newman to win for Skyfall. It's criminal he hasn't got an Oscar. He could get it if voters are of that same mindset. But I have a sneaking suspicion the "prettiest" score will get it. That's Life of Pi. So here's what I'll do. I'll predict Pi. If it wins, I'm right.
If Skyfall wins, I'm wrong, but I get my wish. (If someone else wins, I'm screwed.)


BEST SONG: Absolutely no debate here. Adele's Skyfall wins this in a walk.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Anna Karenina was the showiest and was actually integral to its storytelling, though I think Lincoln could spoil. But I'll stick with Anna.

Should win: Didn't care for the film as a whole, but Anna's production design was truly inventive.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Same logic that applied to Score applies here. Roger Deakins (Skyfall)  should have an Oscar already. He should have several, in fact. But again, I have a feeling voters will default to "pretty" and go for Life of Pi - which also has an edge because of its impressive 3D.  Worked for Avatar and Hugo.

BEST EDITING: Argo is so well constructed that even though the conclusion is a matter of historical record, the suspense remains intense.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: I'll go for Anna Karenina here too. Ballot synergy.

Should win: Mirror Mirror wasn't much of a movie, but it had very imaginative costumes.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: The Hobbit would seem the logical choice, but the overall feeling around is one of ennui:  "been there, done that." So I'll go for Les Mis.

Should win: Lincoln, but it's not nominated for some reason. Les Mis was well done.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Best digital recreation of an animal this side of Jurassic Park means an easy win for Life of Pi.

BEST SOUND MIXING: Almost certainly Les Mis, for its mixing of the live singing.

Should win: Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING: This often goes to a well-made action film. Skyfall fits that to a T.

OSCAR PREDIX: Films and screenplays

Having gone over the actors, we now dive into the best film races that aren't Best Picture, and some of the other major categories this year. If you need a reminder of the nominees, click here.

BEST DIRECTOR: A bit of a tough call this year. A month ago or so, I said Spielberg, but Daniel Day-Lewis aside, Lincoln has lost momentum. I'm going to go for Ang Lee, who took what people said was an until able book and filmed it.
Should win: David O. Russel, for deftly juggling the shifting tone of Silver Linings Playbook.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Another tough call. Zero Dark Thirty has lost momentum too, and I can't see any of the non-Best Picture nominees winning, so I'll go for the other Best Picture nominee: Django Unchained.
Should win: The delicately quirky Moonrise Kingdom.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The tough calls keep coming. Tony Kushner (Lincion) could win just for his reputation alone, but my suspicion is, voters will gravitate toward the feel-good movie of the lot: Silver Linings.
Should Win: Lincoln, for juggling so many threads of history with impressive forward momentum.
BEST ANIMATED FILM: My initial feeling had been Wreck-It-Ralph, but Brave has picked up a lot of precursors, so I'll swing that way. Wreck-It SHOULD win, however.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: When a nominee in this category is also up for Best Picture, that's the logical choice. Amour wins.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: The feel-good Searching for Sugarman has won most if not all precursors.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Curfew
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Paperman
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Inocente

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Oscar Predix: The Girls

As was the case with the actors, the actresses have one race that is very easy to predict, and one race that is not so easy to predict. With the ladies, though, the shoo-in is on the other foot, in the the supporting category that's a shoo-in.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Watts aside, you can cook up a scenario in which any of these nominees could win. I hate to say that about Watts, because I loved her film, and she's long overdue for an Oscar. But she's the only one I don't see having any chance.

Chastain is still riding a wave of praise after her tremendous coming out party last year, and for a long time, her steely but deeply felt work made her a favorite to win. Unfortunately, the torture controversy of ZD30 has tainted her chances. She's already a repeat nominee, though - she will return here.

Riva is a well-respected actress. She's in her 80s, so the Academy will not have many more chances to award her. She's heartbreakingly good in her film. As it happens, Oscar Sunday is her 86th birthday. What a present - and what a story - that would be. On the other hand, a couple of stumbling blocks remain. Her film is very hard to endure, and it's also very small. Have enough people seen it to carry her to the winners circle?

Wallis was sensational in Beasts of the Southern Wild, and she filmed it when she was 6. Only time will tell if she's here to stay, but given that her movie is also up for Picture, Director and Screenplay, she has a lot of support. Still - will rewarding her seem like a novelty more than anything else.

That leaves Lawrence. Some say she's too young for her role, and I can understand that argument, but I think that's part of why her performance works so well - her wise (or wise-ass) beyond her years quality gives the performance gravity. She runs the gamut of emotions, and having accomplished so much at only 22 years old, there's no question she's here to stay. She won the SAG award too, and her movie is extremely well liked, since all her co-stars are nominated.

SHOULD WIN: Lawrence, although every one of the nominees is deserving. The actresses had a great year.

WILL WIN: Lawrence.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD WIN: I have to go with my beloved Amy, but I won't complain about who
WILL WIN: Hathaway. She's had this locked up since before her movie came out.

Oscar Predix 13: The Guys

In an Oscar race filled with tough calls this year, I'm going to start off easy and call the biggest shoo-in of the night.

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

I mean, come on. If Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't win Best Actor for Lincoln, the Academy might as well rename itself The John Wilkes Booth Fan Club. Many people agree it's the best cinematic portrayal of the president, and some, such as myself, call it one of the very best performances of all time. I knew he was going to be great, and I STILL came away astonished. The only competitor who could possibly play spoiler, is, I think, Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, where she howed heretofore unseen range. But Daniel Day-Lewis will rightly become the first man to win three Best Actor statues.

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Day-Lewis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

This one is tougher to call. Jones has won a lot of the precursors, and his role in Lincoln is very flamboyant - but there's not much of a story behind it. Good as he was, Jones didn't surprise anyone.  The Academy likes a story to go with its awards. So that's why, in a close race, I'm tipping my hand to De Niro. He hasn't been nominated at all since Cape Fear in 1992, and this role is seen as a welcome return to form after too many years of lazy paycheck performances.

And he's who I would vote for too - he moved me the most.

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Oscar: Early predix in the big races

Well, I'm kind of glad I didn't write a predictions list this year, since I would have gotten my butt kicked, just like Ben Afleck and Kathryn Bigelow. Emerging unscathed for now, I will tread into the waters of early predictions.

BEST PICTURE

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

No real big surprises here. I was a little sad Moonrise Kingdom missed the cut, but it was never a sure thing.  With 12 nominations, Lincoln shapes up as the early favorite, though Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook are positioned to steal. 


BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

The president is the prohibitive favorite. So much so that I can't even call second place.

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Watts is the only one I don't see winning. They won't have many more chances to award Riva, and Wallis could be a one-hit wonder like Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider. Still, I think this is a tight race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. I give the edge to Chastain, who still has momentum left over from her amazing run last year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

One of the tougher races to call.  All all prior winners. But Jones almost steals the film from Day-Lewis, and that's no small feat.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Anne. Not even up for debate. Forgive me, Amy.


BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Had Affleck been nominated, I would have said he could win. Alas ... I think Mr. Spielberg will win his third Oscar for making a film that's really a chamber piece. And had I written that sentence 20 years ago, I'd have said I was crazy.

More to come ...

Oscar predix 12: The Best Pictures

And now on to the best film awards...

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse 


I was going to do a breakdown of a for and against for each picture, but what would be the point? The Artist is the heaviest favorite to win in some time. If it doesn't win, I'll be shocked. And even a little mad, since it's my favorite of the lot.

Will/should win: The Artist 

Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango 








Barring an upset by the two small-studio films, I think this is pretty clearly Rango's. And I have a question for the Academy. Cars 2 is certainly not up to Pixar's high standards.  But are the DreamWorks sequels Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots REALLY better?

Will/should win: Rango.


Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
 
This one is a bit of a toss-up, as I can see any number of the contenders winning. I'm going to place my best with the case that received the most publicity - the freeing of the West Memphis Three, as chronicled in the Paradise Lost films.

Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)

Praise for A Separation has been SO sky high, I think it's the likely victor.

I'll be posting on Facebook and maybe tweeting too live as the show goes on.  Feel free to join me for random attempts at hilarity and insight!

Oscar predix: The actors

And now for the nominees with a Y chromosome...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branah, My Week with Marilyn

Why he might win: He's delightful in the film, and he was allowed to show a light, comedic side we too seldom see.

Why he might not: The role may seem slight. He isn't Christopher Plummer.

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Why he might win: He pitched a terriffic change-up, playing a crucial role in the film and proving he has range beyond "lovable raunchy guy."

Why he might not: Some people may still struggle with the image change. And he isn't Christopher Plummer.

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Why he might win: He gave a typically solid performance in a film with a lot of emotional heft. Strangely, he hasn't won yet.

Why he might not: This is really the kind of role he could do in his sleep. And he isn't Christopher Plummer.

 Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Why he might win: He IS Christopher Plummer. He's won just about every kudo under the sun so far, and the nice thing is, he truly deserves it. This isn't just a career valedictory; he's wonderful in the film.

Why he might not: Because the cosmos has split in half. You can pretty well bet the ranch on this one.

 
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Why he might win: He gave a showy performance, and for some reason, he's never nanaged to win this award. If anyone has even the slimmist chance of taking it from Plummer, it's him.

But ...

Why he might not: He isn't Christopher Plummer. While his movie managed to pull a surprise Best Picture nom, it has also sparked a lot of grumbling.

Will/should win: Plummer

BEST ACTOR

Demián Bichir, A Better Life











Why he might win: His supporters pushed for a nomination for a movie that flew under a lot of people's radar. Sometimes those types of performances win (see Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose.)



Why he might not: Not enough people saw the film.

George Clooney, The Descendants

Why he might win: He's had another good year, he's extremely well liked, and he got to display an edge we very rarely see from him (i.e. he cries).

Why he night not: He won only a few years ago, for Syriana.

Jean Dujardin, The Artist



Why he might win: He's charmed all of Hollywood, and other viewers of The Artist, with his delightful guilelessness. Has won most of the precursors.

Why he might not: Voters might perfer Clooney's broader range of emotions.


Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Why he might win: About time! After years of putting in strong performances, he's never managed a nod till now. He really should have been nominated for playing Lee Harvey Oswald in JFK.

Why he might not: It's an emotionally pinched performance, where he finds one note and holds it very well.

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Why he might win: He turned in one of his best performances in years as Billy Beane, and with The Tree of Life also under his belt, he has appeared in two Best Picture nominees. Only his Tree costar, Jessica Chastain, can also claim that.


Why he might not: The role's not quite as flashy as some of the competition.

Oscar Predix 12 : Actresses

Now for the analysis to get a little more in-depth.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: It's Oscar bait (playing in drag), voters will admire this was a passion project for Close (she produced, co-wrote the screenplay and even wrote song lyrics) and rather remarkably, Close doesn't have an Oscar yet.

Why she might not: The film is a whole is generally regarded as underwhelming and not as well seen as the other films in the category. 

Viola Davis, The Help

Why she might win: She's due. Overdue, one could argue. She's consistently great in everything she does, and she shone in a big box office hit. She has won most of the precursors.

Why she might not: There's a slim chance of there being an upswing of support for Streep, who has not won since the early 80s. But don't bank on it. This is Davis' to lose.

Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Why she might win: She underwent a remarkable transformation. Just think: that's the same girl who dumped Zuckerberg in The Social Network? Even more impressively, she made the role her own, even in the long shadow of Noomi Rapace.

Why she might not: Too soon. If this role is any indication, she'll be back. And the competition is just too strong.

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Why she might win: She's only the greatest living American actress. And her transformation into the controversial and legendary prime minister is remarkable. Though she seems to be nominated every year, she hasn't actually won since Sophie's Choice some 30 years ago. 
 
Why she might not: The film itself underwhelmed a lot of people and might not be cause enough for Streep to be back in the winner's circle just yet.

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Why she might win: She doesn't look or sound much like Marilyn in real life, but she absolutely nailed her portrayal of the legend. She's on her third nomination, so the Academy loves her.

Why she might not: The film is (wrongly) considered slight by some. As much as a roll she's on now, it's plainly evident she'll be back. Her time will come.

Should win: Mara
Will win: Davis

Best Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Why she might win: She could win on a sweep for The Artist. Voters might find it fun to pair her with Jean Dujardin, the likely Best Actor winner.

Why she might not: There really hasn't been much buzz about her in the ramp-up to the Oscars. She's a dark horse at best.

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Why she might win: She has had an absolutely fantastic and breakout year, having been excellent in all her other films of 2011, including Take Shelter, The Debt and the film she really should have been nominated for, The Tree of Life.

Why she might not: Her nominated co-stars in The Help have the most memorable moments in the movie. At the rate Chastain is going, we'll certainly see her nominated again soon.

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Why she might win: She was the scene-stealer of the year, and a hilarious one to boot.

Why she might not: Comedies aren't taken seriously enough.

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: She had a nice little comeback after being nominated years ago for Tumbleweeds, but not gaining much attention since.

Why she might not: Neither her movie, nor her campaign, has much momentum.


Octavia Spencer, The Help 

Why she might win: She has owned this role, even before the movie came out, playing Minny in the audio book. She's won most if not all percursors. And I think voters like the idea of making history by having Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress going to African-Americans.

Why she might not: Well, there was always the Juliette Binoche scenario ...

Will win: Spencer
Should win: Bejo, who's nearly as delightful as her co-star.

Oscar Predix 12: Director/Screnplay predix

Continuing with the Oscar predictions, we move on to more prominent craft categories: namely writing and directing.


Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Will/Should Win: Midnight in Paris.

This is a race between the favorite The Artist and Woody Allen's biggest hit in years. I could see it going to The Artist if the Academy wants to reward the ingenuity of the idea - but then again, the idea of the movie is that its beauty lies in the visuals and not so much in the words. Words, however, are a large part of the beauty of Midnight in Paris, and if it doesn't win this, it gets nothing.The film's hefty fanbase will see that doesn't happen.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Peter Straughan and Bridget O’Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Will/Should win: The Descendants

This race is between my pick for the best film of the year, The Descendants, and Moneyball, in which two of Hollywood's top writers took a very technical book and turned it into a very human story. However, The Descendants will win for one very simple reason: it's the emotional knockout of the bunch. Voters vote with their hearts, and that's all over The Descendants. 


Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
 
Will win: Hazanavicus
Should win: Scoresese

This race is between the greatest living American director (Marty) and the very clever newcomer (Michel), both of whom wrote impassioned love letters to the movies themselves. It is entirely possible that they might reward Hazanavicus for his writing and give this one to Scorsese, not only for producing one of his most uplifting movies, but for being one of the few directors to show that 3D can be a vital and beautiful storytelling tool.

That said, Scorsese won fairly recently for The Departed. And Havanavicius just won the DGA award, which is a pretty strong indicator. Some people may see this as a repeat of 2003, when an auteur (Roman Polanksi) beat out a promising newcomer (Rob Marshall, who has not lived up to that promise since). The major difference? Polanski didn't have an Oscar already.

I liked the way the site In Contention put it: 'As much as people like to make parallels with the 2002 Rob Marshall/Roman Polanski situation that vaguely make sense on paper, this isn't looking like much of a race. Michel Hazanavicius has the DGA, the BAFTA, the BFCA Award and even some major critics' prizes. Martin Scorsese has a Golden Globe. Do the math. "The Artist" is too well-loved -- and too much a product of directorial ingenuity -- not to win here."

Besides, if my prediction is correct, that makes me look wise. If my prediction is wrong, my favorite director gets the prize. Either way, I win! 

Oscar predix 12: Below the line

And so we begin 2012's Oscar predictions with the "bathroom break" awards: In other words, for the technical category and short films awards that the average viewer doesn't care about. Most of my blog's readers aren't average viewers, but even if you are a more casual fan, you DO need these categories to help win your Oscar office pool. After all, the major categories are pretty well set; the techs are much more in flux.


Short Film (Animated)
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Will/should win: I've seen all the nominees this year. Maybe Pixar had an off year with Cars 2, but they're still firing on all cylinders with La Luna, which is typically ingenious work by them. However, A Morning Stroll is very clever, with its multiple styles of animation, and it's the funniest of the lot. So it's a possible spoiler. The overall field here is underwhelming.

Short Film (Live Action)
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Will/should win: This is a particularly strong group this year; with the possible exception of the slight but enjoyable, Pentecost, I could see any of these taking the Oscar. I'm going with the emotionalism of The Shore, a very affecting drama  starring Ciaran Hinds and directed by Terry George, who made Hotel Rwanda. I would not rule out Time Freak, which, like last year's winner God of Love. is a very clever little comedy.

Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Should win: Saving Face

My personal favorite, Saving Face, an amazing story of Pakistani women prevailing over acid attacks, could very well win, but my gut tells me the better-known story of the tsunami that ravaged Japan will score more points.

 Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Tree of Life

Logic would dictate that Tree of Life would win here; it won the ASC award, and it fulfills the "pretty!" prerequisite typical of many winners. I think it deserves to win, not only for its beauty, but for its well-executed hand-held camerawork.

HOWEVER - a lot of people HATE The Tree of Life, and as knowledgeable Oscar prognosticators have pointed out, you have to go back 62 years to find the last movie that won cinematography without any other techs. And sure, Emmanuel Lubezki is due, but tell that to Roger Deakins.  Therefore, I'm thinking the overall love for The Aritst will carry the day.


Art Direction 
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Will/Should win: The opening five minutes of Hugo should seal the deal for that film.

Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Will/should win: Hugo is the most opulent and it's a Best Picture nominee.


Film Editing
The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Kevin Tent
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker 
Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen

Will win: The Artist
 Should win: Moneyball

I wouldn't rule out another win for Thelma Schoonmaker, but I'm guessing The Artist's overall ingenuity prevails here. Moneyball might seem like a surprising personal pick for me, but I really admire the way it jumped back and forth in time to tell the backstory of Billy Beane.


Makeup
Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston, and Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng 
The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Will/should win: Here's where Harry Potter finally wins something.


Music (Original Score)
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams

Will/Should win: The Artist's score is too delightful to ignore. And I actually think Kim Novak's ridiculous complaint about the use of the Vertigo music will help the film, not hurt it.


Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett

Will/should win: The Muppets had BETTER win this one, or whatever screen I'm watching this on will have a big hole in it.

Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Monyeball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Will/should win: Hugo for both.

This category can be hard to be predict, and I'm inclined to think most voters who aren't in the sound branch don't know the difference. However, since the silent movie wasn't nominated here, I think voters will go for the Best Picture nominee that sounds great.


Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Will/should win: This will mark the third time that an Andy Serkis performance carries its film to Oscar, after The Two Towers and King Kong/

Oscar reax part deux

Continuing from where I left off with Oscar ...

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Clearly this is a two-film race between two odes to the past: The Artist and Midnight in Paris. I'm leaning toward The Artist because it has the ingenious factor going for it, and I think the overall affection for the film will carry the day.
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Peter Straughan and Bridget O’Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 Here's another two-film race, between The Descendants and Moneyball. Moneyball has a good shot because it has two A-list writers adapting a book that people said couldn't be a movie. Still, The Desecendants seems to be better liked to me, and it's a more emotional piece. Emotionalism tends to carry the day.


Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango 

So Pixar gets snubbed for the first time in this category. but that wasn't a great surprise. Does Cars 2 deserve all the scorn it got? No. Does it merit an Oscar nomination? No. I'm willing to bet it's better than the two nominated DreamWorks sequels, but Rango's quirkiness gives it an edge. I'm at a disadvantage in this category because I haven't seen A Cat in Paris or Chico & Rita. Then again, few people have.


Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)

A Separation has all kinds of acclaim, so that's my best guess.


Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse


OK, OK, so A  lot of people didn't "get" Tree of Life. But no matter how much that film makes you feel like saying "Derp," if you deny the cinematography, you are willfully blind. Hugo's lush 3D photography could take the prize, though.

Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
War Horse

The Artist could win in a sweep. but I think Dante Ferretti's electorate, resplendent sets for Hugo will stick the most with viewers.


Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Hey, the film directed by Madonna got nominated! (rolls eyes). Most likely The Artist (again).


Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated


I'm guessing the movie that helped free murder suspects from prison (Paradise Lost 3) gets the nod.



Film Editing
The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Kevin Tent
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker 
Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen 

Hugo or The Artist. I lean toward Hugo, which is flashier.

Makeup
Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston, and Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng 
The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Hey Harry. here's your Oscar!

Music (Original Score)
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams

Most likely The Artist (again), although I could see Hugo taking this too.

Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett

Sheeeez. Sometimes I think this category ought to go the way of Best Dance Direction.  Muppets easy.



Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Monyeball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

These tend to be hard to predict. Hell, The Ghost and the Darkness won this award. I'll guess Hugo for both, since it's a Best Picture nominee. BTW, why couldn't Super 8 have been nominated instead of the robots?



Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

It took forever for the Academy to recognize an animated film could be a Best Picture nominee; I'm not sure why people seriously thought Andy Serkis would get a nomination for motion capture work. However, an Oscar for the people who helped turn him into an ape? It's been done before (King Kong), it can be done again.

Oscar (not) the Grouch

Over the past couple of days I had been feeling rather guilty about never putting together an Oscar nominations predictions piece. This is the first time since the mid-90s I've not done it. As it has so often done in the recent past, life happened to me while I was busy making other plans.

Well, thanks a million, life! I'm kinda glad I didn't do a predictions piece this year, because it would contain several variations of "Whoops! Got THAT wrong!"  So embarrassment spared, I will simply react to the nominees as presented Tuesday morning.

BEST PICTURE

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse 

The only major surprise here was Extremely Loud getting tapped after all of the precursors had ignored it. Personally, I'm terrified of the film, since the trailer makes it look like precious schmaltz, and I loathe most of the movies by Stephen Daldry (The Hours, The Reader). No matter, however. The film has zero chance of winning, although I think The Artist has probably got it for turning a gimmick into something, well, artistic. More to the point, it's delightful. But The Descendants is probably a strong second, and Hugo a decent third.

BEST DIIRECTOR

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Malick took what some people said should have been Fincher's slot, and while I would have preferred Fincher myself,  I understand the thinking. Among directors, Malick is a legend. Fincher isn't quite there yet. This is a race between another legend (Marty) and a newcomer (Michel), both of whom made loving homages to the early history of movies. Since he's Scorsese, and because he gave his picture such a wondrous 3D visual style, I tend to tap him for director, since Hazanavicius' movie will probably win picture and screenplay.

BEST ACTOR

Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

 Some people favor Clooney, and while he ran an impressive emotional gamut, he won fairly recently, for Syriana. I favor the boundless charm of Dujardin, with Pitt as a possible spoiler. Finally, while I have great respect for Gary Oldman, I'm lukewarm on his Tinker Tailor perf. As a friend of mine facetiously said, "Gary Oldmann should get an Oscar for being able to hold a completely emotionless look on his face for 2.5 hours."

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

I am absolutely DELIGHTED Ms. Mara made the cut here when many said she wouldn't - it made up for Dragon Tattoo not scoring any other major nominations. She would be my vote to win, but she won't - I think that honor will most likely go to Davis, who's an emotional powerhouse in The Help, and who has been so good in so many movies that it's well nigh time for her ship to come in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Like many others, I was sorry, although not altogether surprised to see AMPAS snub Albert Brooks for his great work in Drive. As Mr. Brooks himself put it before the nominations, "Tomorrow I find out if I have to go to any more events that Christopher Plummer wins." This is Plummer in a walk. If someone is second, it ain't even close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

I was very sad to see Shailene Woodley's sassy and touching performance in The Descendants get overlooked; my guess is McTeer took her slot, and as it happens, I think McTeer is the only one who's a long shot. I could see any of the other four getting it. AMPAS might pair up Spencer with Davis. Or they might pair Bejo with Duajardin. Or they might reward Chastain for being great not only in The Help but in 62 other movies last year. The toughest race to call. I'll get back to you on that one, and I'll get back to you soon on the other Oscar categories.

For now, for people lamenting the lack of nominations for Drive, Dragon Tattoo et al, it's important to remember that the Academy likes its films to be happy or tear-jerking, not in-your-face antisocial. As In Contention astutely observed,

"...no nominations for "Shame" and "We Need to Talk About Kevin" -- including snubs for two of the top performances of the year -- combined with somewhat unexpected major nominations for "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" and "War Horse" to go along with the expected inclusions of "The Artist," "The Help" and "Midnight in Paris," as well as a Best Picture miss for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," all adds up to one thing: the Academy likes its collective heart warmed, not disturbed. We already knew that, of course, so it's a point less learned than solidified. And very important to keep in mind."

 In other words, Oscar is many things, but on Hollywood Boulevard, he's not a grouch.

The Oscars weren't THAT bad - but ...

Forgive me for being a bit late to the party on this one, but I spent the past week in Florida for some much-needed R&R - and besides all that, my smartphone's keyboard is just too teeny to write more than a micropost. 

The vitriol that followed this year's Oscar telecast really surprised me. I rather enjoyed the show. Last week's show  was certainly better than last year's mess of a telecast, hosted by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin (though the problems were not their fault). My friend Scott Copeland, also an ace Oscar watcher, agrees with me. So did EW's Ken Tucker. So we're not alone. And we're not crazy. 

Contrary to popular opinion, the hosts were NOT the problem with this year's show. Or at least not half of them. I will grant you that James Franco was out of his element, in more ways than one. Anne Hathaway, however, was a delight, and I'd be happy to see her host the Oscars or another show with a better-matched co-host. Hathaway was bright and charming and would probably have been better off hosting on her own.

However, even Franco himself wasn't the problem. The problem was the writing, which was off point this year. Most of the gags weren't funny. The fake song montage was cringe-worthy. And the writers missed an OBVIOUS gag by NOT having Hathaway pull Hugh Jackman onstage, echoing their duet the year Jackman hosted. Come on, guys. That's the same syndrome that afflicted Muppets from Space, when it missed the Pigs in Space reference. Sometimes the obvious gag is the right one. 

(Side note: I hope whoever did the sound mix was fired. The distant, echo-y vocals made a crop of already forgettable songs sound that much worse.) 

However, I did like how how most of the awards were presented. The screenplay presentations were clever, and the new tradition of having the presenter laud each individual nominee came off much better than it did last year. Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock handled their duties with great aplomb. And even though I don't much care for Celine Dion, I will give credit where it is due. Her "Smile" during the In Memoriam segment was nicely understated. And bravo to whomever asked the audience to hold their applause until the end, averting the unseemly clap-o-meter.

All that said, the Oscars could stand to make a few changes. Foremost among those is to stop trying so hard to cater to the young crowd. Most of them are not that interested and are never going to be, no matter what you do. This is the same mistake my industry, the newspapers, made. They tried so hard to court teens and 20-somethings, they ended up alienating their most loyal audience. Same with the Academy.

Part of the allure of the Oscars is its sense of history and old Hollywood glamor. So why not capitalize on that more? Many of the great classic stars are gone, yes -- but a number of them are still with us. Olivia de Havilland is still around. So are Shirley Temple and Mickey Rooney. Seeing them would be a total  gas. Get 'em while they're still here. Look at how much fun Kirk Douglas was this year!  You don't even have to go back to the golden age. Try to lure some people out of retirement, like Gene Hackman or Sean Connery. They'd brighten any telecast. 

In the meantime, I'm content with mostly good memories of this year's show. I'm only sorry that more people didn't see it. Sucks to be them.

Oscar predix: The BIG ones

When the Oscars air Sunday, Sunday just might be a literal term for me.

This will be the first year I'm not watching the Oscars in Ohio. I'm taking a trip down to the Mouse House in Florida, where I understand the sun has been rather abundant of late. So not long after I wipe myself out walking through World Showcase at Epcot, I will be relaxing and watching the telecast

However, since I'm quite busy getting ready for the trip, I MIGHT not have time to predict as many categories as I usually do, or go into great detail on how I made all my picks.

That being the case, I plan to at least give you the major categories now, and if time allows, I will at least list the techs on Friday. I will also be Tweeting @sircritic and posting on Facebook that evening if you'd like to follow me in those domains.

For now, here are the Big Six in this domain:

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, Biutiful: He has a lot of passionate supporters and was something of a surprise nominee. He’s almost always great. But his film has not been widely seen, and it’s not that well liked.

Jeff Bridges, True Grit: He’s one of the industry’s most well-respected actors, and he accomplished the unenviable task of following in John Wayne’s footsteps. Only thing is, he just won last year, for Crazy Heart, and I’m not sure he’s SO beloved to win two years in a row, like Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks did.

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network: He very effectively shattered the beef against him that he plays the same likable geek every time, playing Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg as a standoffish genius/traitor, bu he still found an emotional center to the role. I think some voters will be put off by the coldness of the character, though.

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech: He had to play someone who was afraid of his own shadow, but who still seemed like he could be king, and he did it with absolute assurance. Firth is extremely well-liked, and he has a lot of goodwill from his nomination for A Single Man last year. And he’s in the presumed Best Picture winner. The Oscar is his to lose.

James Franco, 127 Hours: He had to carry an entire film almost on the strength of his performance. He is very often the only character onscreen. He IS the film. He’s co-hosting the Oscars this Sunday, so obviously he’s very well liked. However, many find a movie about a man who has to hack his own arm off a very tough sit.

Sir Critic’s prediction: Colin Firth

If it were up to me: Much as I love Firth's performance, I think Eisenberg did the canniest, trickiest work of the lot.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right: Let’s face it, Bening is greatly overdue. If anyone can beat front-runner Portman, it’s her. Bening will win someday. Just not this year.

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole: Kidman turned in her best work in years for this very affecting film, but Rabbit Hole never gained much traction, and Kidman won fairly recently for The Hours.

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone: Her film has a fervent following, and it’s largely because of her. She was very natural and powerful in a difficult part, and she’s only 20. But all that being the case, she’ll be back.This isn’t her time.

Natalie Portman, Black Swan: She’s won every precursor award under the sun, and even people who didn’t like Black Swan tip their hats to Portman. The one thing that might trip her up is fatigue; she has two movie in theaters now, with at least two more on the way.

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine: Much as she did in Brokeback Mountain she took the part of a tragic figure and made her mutli-dimensional. But like Kidman, she’s the lone nominee from her film, which hurts her chances. Some other year.

Sir Critic's prediction: Natalie Portman

If it were up to me: Portman gave the performance of the year. Period. If anyone else wins, even the great Michelle Williams, Natalie will have been robbed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Fighter: Bale once again amazed with his chameleon-like abiltites. You completely by him as a gaunt crackhead and forget he was Batman. The question is, are people ready to forgive his sometimes boorish behavior? I think so.

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone: Hawkes impressed many with his haunting turn as Jennifer Lawrene’s uncle. But the film is remembered primarily as Lawrence’s vehicle.

Jeremy Renner, The Town: Renner is on a roll, having been nominated last year for his similar live-wire performance in The Hurt Locker. However, The Town did not score very high in the nominations.

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right: He’s immensely winning as a man who tries to connect with the biological children he’s never known. He’s been doing good work for years, so he’s due - but this role may not be hefty enough.

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech: Riotously funny but still maintainng gravitas when needed. Rush's performane is as key to the success of The King's Speech as Firth's, He’s the person most likely to upset Bale, but one must remember he’s already a winner, for the film Shine.


Sir Critic's prediction: Bale

If it Were Up to Me: It's not just Bale's weight loss that did the trick - he moved me too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Fighter: Adams blew her goody-goody image out of the water with her tough-talking performance as Mark Wahlberg’s squeeze. This is her third nomination, so some may say she’s due. But costar Melssa Leo will cut into her vote.

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech: Carter isn’t just due, she’s overdue, and she’s very touching as the suffering but steadfast Queen. However, her performance is a bit light compared to others in this category.

Melissa Leo, The Fighter: She completely disappeared into her role as Mark Wahlberg’s oppressive mother, and she’s won most of the precursor awards. However, she put off some voters with her misguided Oscar campaign glamour shot ads. She and Adams may cancel each other out.

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit: The 14-year-old may be small in stature, but she loomed large in True Grit, where she was really the lead. She more than held her own with the likes of Matt Damon and Jeff Bridges and did it with supreme confidence. However, the category fraud may put off voters, as will her young age.

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom: Many people say once you see her film, you have a hard time not voting for her. But can enough people say that?

Sir Critic’s predicton: This is the toughest call in the major races.  You could coook up any scenario for any of the nominees winning. However, I lean toward the Hailee Steinfeld scenario most strongly.

If it Were Up to Me: If I vote with my heart, I vote for Amy. But in all honesty,  Steinfeld impressed me even more.

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan: The auteur has built a strong following over the years, and people who love Black Swan really love it. But too many people find his in-your-face approach off-putting

Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit: The Coens are among the most well respected auteurs out there, and True Grit is their biggest hit to date. But they won very recently, for .No Country for Old Men

David Fincher, The Social Network: Yet another well-regarded autueur, Fincher is long overdue for a win, and his film earned the best reviews of his career.

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech : He won the Director’s Gulld award, which makes him  a favorite, and people love his film. But the winners usually exhibit strong visual personalities, and one could argue Hooper doesn’t have that. And this time, Hooper won't have the support of guild TV directors, who I believe tipped the scales in his favor at DGA.  

David O. Russell, The Fighter : Like Fincher, he’s a respected auteur and is hitting a carrer peak. However, he has a penchant for alienating some of his actors (George Clooney refused to work for him ever again after Three Kings.)   

Sir Critic’s prediction: Conventional wisdome dictates that Hooper will take it, but I think we’ll see a repeat of Chicago’s year, when the relative neophute (Rob Marhshall) won DGA, but the autuer (Roman Polanski) won the Oscar. I predict Fincher. 

If it were up to me: The non-nominated Christopher Nolan, dammit! But since he's not here (grumble), I have to go for Fincher, who took a dialogue-driven film and still made it distinctly his. 

BEST PICTURE

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids are All Right

The King’s Speech

127 Hours 

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit 

Winter’s Bone

Sir Critic's prediction: Rather than going over each film, I’ll break this down very simply. Only three movies have a shot at winning. True Grit is the long shot, leaving The Social Network and The King’s Speech as the main contenders. It’s an old Oscar story: The warm and fuzzy traditional film vs. the edgy, rule-breaking movie that Says Something Important. Whenever that battle happens (e.g. Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction, heartwarming almost always wins. The King’s Speech is the film to beat. 

If it were up to me: Inception topped my list last year. I just wish it had a chance in hell of topping Oscar's list. Oh well. I can dream, can't I?