Nobody Knows Anything: I like to think I'm pretty good at predicting the Oscars, but they almost always throw in at least one loopy surprise that throws me. I've given up on trying to predict such loopy surprises, because I'm not good at that. So generally speaking, my predictions err on the side of safety.
Deserve's Got Nothin' to Do With It: Never, ever, ever use "It was so good" as your rationale for predicting tricker Oscar nominations. More often than not, you just end up looking silly. You start with your favorites and use reasonable guesswork from there. So here's the best of my guesswork.
BEST PICTURE
Alternates: Winter’s Bone, Blue Valentine
BEST PICTURE
- Black Swan
- The Fighter
- Inception
- The Kids are All Right
- The King’s Speech
- 127 Hours
- The Social Network
- The Town
- Toy Story 3
- True Grit
Alternates: Winter’s Bone, Blue Valentine
In the end I felt safest going with the Producers Guild nominations. The shakiest best are 127 Hours and The Town, but I include it because it's the kind of classical storytelling the Academy likes. 127 Hours has faded from view, but I ultimately include it because Franco's performance is SO central to it, and that performance is not in dispute.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Alternates:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Frith and Franco are locks, Bridges and Eisenberg very likely, fifth spot is the trickiest. I went with Duvall esentially because, well - he's Duvall. Bardem is gaining heat and is the likeliest spoiler.
BEST ACTRESS
Anette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Alternates:
Portman, Bening and Lawrence are in for sure. But I'm going out on a limb a bit with this category. I think those who see True Grit will realize that Steinfeld is the lead. It's HER story.
Her character is in EVERY scene. So even though she's being pushed in supporting, I think, the Academy will recognize category fraud, just as they did with Keisha Castle Hughes in Whale rider. If Steinfeld goes to supporting, sub Kidman, although she's shaky because Rabbit Hole just hasn't built up much heat. I'm rooting for Moore to pull an upset, though. I liked her better than Bening.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Alternates:
Matt Damon, True Grit
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Bale, Garfield and Rush are your best bets, I go with Renner because he's well liked in a well liked film, and with Ruffalo who is grossly overdue for a nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helana Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Alternates:
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Dainne Weist, Rabbit Hole
Amy, Bonham Carter and Leo are in, and I feel very comfortable with Kunis, who has gained traction. That leaves slot five up for grabs, and I think Weaver is the most likely spoiler.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russel, The Fighter
Alternates:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
The Coen Brothers, True Grit
Sticking with the DGA noms seems pretty safe.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Alternates:
Despicable Me
The Illusionist
There will only be three nominees this year. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon are secure. Tangled is vulnerable, but I'm sticking with it because it generated a lot of goodwill as a return to form for Disney.
Remainder of the picks after the jump
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Frith and Franco are locks, Bridges and Eisenberg very likely, fifth spot is the trickiest. I went with Duvall esentially because, well - he's Duvall. Bardem is gaining heat and is the likeliest spoiler.
BEST ACTRESS
Anette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Alternates:
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Julianne Moore, The Kids are All Right
Portman, Bening and Lawrence are in for sure. But I'm going out on a limb a bit with this category. I think those who see True Grit will realize that Steinfeld is the lead. It's HER story.
Her character is in EVERY scene. So even though she's being pushed in supporting, I think, the Academy will recognize category fraud, just as they did with Keisha Castle Hughes in Whale rider. If Steinfeld goes to supporting, sub Kidman, although she's shaky because Rabbit Hole just hasn't built up much heat. I'm rooting for Moore to pull an upset, though. I liked her better than Bening.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Alternates:
Matt Damon, True Grit
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Bale, Garfield and Rush are your best bets, I go with Renner because he's well liked in a well liked film, and with Ruffalo who is grossly overdue for a nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helana Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Alternates:
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Dainne Weist, Rabbit Hole
Amy, Bonham Carter and Leo are in, and I feel very comfortable with Kunis, who has gained traction. That leaves slot five up for grabs, and I think Weaver is the most likely spoiler.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russel, The Fighter
Alternates:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
The Coen Brothers, True Grit
Sticking with the DGA noms seems pretty safe.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Alternates:
Despicable Me
The Illusionist
There will only be three nominees this year. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon are secure. Tangled is vulnerable, but I'm sticking with it because it generated a lot of goodwill as a return to form for Disney.
Remainder of the picks after the jump