Ebertfest II

Day two of Ebertfest began with something missing. Patton Oswalt was supposed to appear to discuss his movie Big Fan, but the shooting schedule of his current movie made it impossible. On the plus side, he did write what may be the most eloquent apology I've ever read.

I hated to miss my chance to see Patton, but writer/director Robert Siegel was there. I had seen his film before, but I had forgotten that he had written The Wrestler, directed by Darren Aronofsky. Big Fan is often described as a less bloody Taxi Driver, and Big Fan also has a lot to say about misplaced obsession. On my second viewing, however, I was struck by how similar it was to a later film with Patton Oswalt: Young Adult. The leads of both films are neither totally unsympathetic nor totally right in the head - but what struck me about both was that neither character learns a damn thing in the end. That may be a flaw to some, but it made Big Fan (and Young Adult) that much more fascinating.

I also took this away from Big Fan, as someone who doesn't follow sports: Just because you're deeply into athletics doesn't make you any less of a geek than, say, a film nerd.

Next up was Kinayarwanda, and it was the first film of the festival that left me a bit wanting. I admired it, and indefinitely understood the value of a movie about Rwandan genocide being made by Rwandans. While the film has a number of great moments, including a striking animated sequence, it doesn't hold together as well as Hotel Rwanda, mainly because it lacked a central figure in which I could be emotionally invested.

The third film, however, was flat-out wonderful. Terri resonated with me a lot because it focuses on social mis fits, and I often felt like one. Indie films like this often succumb to self-conscious quirkiness, but in Terri it's essential because it shows how quirky we all are - quirk is what makes us us. I was especially struck when Jacob Wysocki, who plays the title character, spoke at the festival. This was his very first film role, but in real life, Wysocki is gregarious and outgoing - very much the opposite of Terri. Christy Lemire, the AP film critic and a child of the 80s, said it reminded her of The Breakfast Club. I think it may be even better than that.

Ebertfest Day 1

It didn't take long for me to realize I would absolutely love Ebertfest.

OK, that's a bit of a misnomer. I knew I would love it even before I got there. C'mon. It's me, movies and Roger Ebert.

Still, knowing something in the abstract is still only the abstract. Actually experiencing it? That's something else altogether. I had been to any number of special film events before. The people I've been lucky enough to see include effects maestro Phil Tippett, the lovely Patricia Neal and Janet Leigh, and another Lee called Spike. I've even seen Ebert before, when he came to Columbus for a long interview with this director I like named Scorsese.

I'm only two days into Ebertfest, and I can already tell you this experience trumps them all. First off, there's the theater itself. The Virginia in Champaign is one of those classic movie place with a huge screen that has to be at least 50 feet long. Some of the plaster is crumbling, and it's not quite as resplendent as the Ohio Theatre in Columbus, but the Virgina has character out the wazoo. One look at the place is enough to set the tone.

Then there's the other thing about movie theaters like this - the sound. And I don't mean the speakers, although it's top notch here. I'm talking about the sound of the audience. First, there's the sound of laughter coming from more than 1,000 people. I had not heard that in too long. Second, and more important, is the mood of the place. Every single person is there to SEE MOVIES and not just munch popcorn and dick around. Too many people treat movies, even good ones, like pieces of gum - they enjoy it while it lasts and then they forget about it not long after. Not here - not with these folks.

Our first film is Joe Versus the Volcano, the Tom Hanks/Meg Ryan movie no one saw. I would say it defies description, but it really doesn't. It defies simple description. It's a little Terry Gilliam, a little Fritz Lang, a little Frank Capra, a little Howard Hawks, a little Coens and a lot its own animal. The movie's a strange bird, and it revels in it. The film, written and directed by John Patrick Shanley (Moonstruck/Doubt) is very loosey goosey, and it doesn't always hang together, but that very freewheeling quality is what makes it so charming. Not only do I urge you to see it, I urge you to see it not by yourself, and not even with just one other person. This movie is best viewed with a group of people who can infect each other with slap happiness.

Afterwards, cinematographer Stephen Goldblatt (The Help, Lethal Weapon etc) came out to discuss the film with AP critic and Ebert Presents at the movies co-host Christy Lemire, and one of Ebert's "Far-Flung Correspondents," Pablo Villaca from Brazil. They talked about the stylized look of Joe Versus the Volcano, my favorite moment being Goldblatt's explanation of how he gets shafts of light. "Smoke. Where there's smoke, there's Goldblatt," he said.

The second attraction was sort of a double feature about black comics. The first was a short called The Truth about Beauty and Blogs by Kelechie Ezie, who spoke. It was a very funny piece about a woman who essentially lives on the Internet and has, shall we say, relationship issues. Attention Saturday Night Live - HERE is how to take a one-joke premise and NOT run it into the ground.

Next was a feature-length doc called Phunny Busines: A Black Comedy about All Jokes Aside, the groundbreaking comedy club that was a stomping ground for pretty much every working African American comedian you've heard of. What I most liked about the doc was that it wasn't funny just because comics talked on camera - it was funny because of the way it was made. It cracks its ow jokes, partly because the central figure, former club owner Raymond Lambert is such a figure of fun. He was refreshingly willing not only to crack a joke, but be the butt of the joke.

The evening didn't end until 1:30 a.m., so I was dead tired by then, but I was also deliriously happy. I couldn't wait for more.

 

Summer Movie Preview: June

It's all about the aliens this month ...

JUNE 1

Snow White and the Huntsman - This spring's Mirror Mirror turned out to be decent, but even before I saw that, I had higher hopes for this film, which looks to take Snow White in a more adrenalized direction - and Charlize Theron makes for a formidable wicked queen.

JUNE 8

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - I've never much been into the Madagascar series. They're emblematic of everything wrong with DreamWorks animation - emphasizing gags over characters, and a soundtrack by K-Tel designed to give parents something to bop to. Meh.

Prometheus - Oh, HELL yes. After The Dark Knight Rises, this is the summer movie I'm most looking forward to seeing. Ridley Scott can be maddeningly inconsistent, but my feeling is he's firing on all thrusters here - and whoever says this isn't an Alien prequel is a damn liar.


JUNE 15


Rock of Ages - On the one hand, I'm not much for 80s nostalgia, but on the other hand, I very much enjoyed Adam Shannkman's Hairspray. Plus Tom Cruise looks like he's having a lot of fun, and Julianne Hough is super cute. I'm in.

That's My Boy: Adam Sandler's latest attempt to pander to people who are perpetually 13 years old. And even that may be aiming too high. I'm out.

JUNE 22

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - You know, it's funny. I might be looking forward to this even more than Spielberg's Lincoln biopic due later this year.

Brave -  Pixar. I still have faith, even if they were coasting a bit with Cars 2.

Seeking a Friend for the End of the World - Keira Knightley gets a chance to be funny. The trailer is a trip.



JUNE 29

GI Joe: Retaliation: I don't care if Bruce Willis is in it. Pass. I'm not much into sequels to movies not many people liked in the first place.

Magic Mike: Steven Soderbergh makes a movie about male strippers. Wow.

People Like Us: Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci (the writers of Abrams' Star Trek) make their first movie that doesn't rely heavily on CGI,  A fine cast includes Chris Pine, Elizabeth Banks and Olvia Wilde.

Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection: Why, yes, I would like to enter such a program - to protect me from Madea.

May Summer Movie preview

And so the summer movie season is upon us! Well, almost. There's still one more week to go before summer officially starts (movie-wise, anyway), but I wanted to get the summer preview completed before I head out to Ebertfest this coming Wednesday. That mean four days to get May, June July and August accounted for. So off I go.

MAY 4


The Avengers: Like everyone else, I've been looking forward to this movie (seems almost wrong to call it a film). But I wasn't THAT hot on it, mostly because I found the recent Marvel slate (Thor, Iron Man II, Captain America, etc.) somewhat underwhelming.
Then I read this.

It's hard to imagine that anyone with an appetite for the trademark's patented brand of fantasy, effects, mayhem and strangely dressed he-men will be disappointed; not only does this eye-popping 3D display of visual effects fireworks feature an enormously high proportion of action scenes, but director Joss Whedon has adroitly balanced the celebrity circus to give every single one of the superstar characters his or her due.

OK, I'm sold.


MAY 11


Dark Shadows: Fans have been up in arms about the comic tone of the trailer, and I've had my own misgivings about Tim Burton's work of late - I found Alice in Wonderland horribly overrated. But I have to admit, I laughed. I like the Beetlejuice-esque tone. I like any chance to look at Eva Green. I like a chance to see Chloe Grace Moretz steal scenes. I'm in.




MAY 18


Battleship: Barnacles! Hell no! I'm disappointed in a talented direcctor like Peter Berg so blatantly ripping off Michael Bay.I want to be a torpedo.


The Dictator: I admired Borat more than I found it actually funny, and Bruno, aside from a couple good sequences, was an out-and-out botch - but I have to admit, the trailer sold me.





What to Expect When You're Expecting: Anna Kendrick and Elizabeth Banks are in it. Good enough for me.


MAY 25


Chernobyl Diaries: So this is a summer release, huh? It better live up to the trailer.





MIB 3: Having Josh Brolin play the young Tommy Lee Jones is a stroke of genius. So why do I feel iffy about this one? Oh, I dunno. Could be because they started shooting without a finished script, which is never a good idea.

Sequels that were better than the originals? Not always

The website Total Film has published a list of what it says are 50 sequels that are better than the originals (or at least on par with them, it says in smaller print.)

Fifty? Really? Even at the rate they crank out sequels these days, that number seems high. I'm not going to mention every film they cited (there are a handful I haven't seen), but  I knew the list was trouble from the very first entry.

Die Hard with a Vengeance: Horseshit right off the bat. I'll listen to an argument for Die Hard 2, but the third one was a mess. For one thing, the script was originally developed as a Lethal Weapon sequel, so it didn't fit the "jeopardy in a confined space" mold the first two used so well. Worse yet, it has one of the stupidest endings this side of the extended Exorcist conclusion. Even the cheesy sequel, Live Free or Die Hard, was better than this.

Hot Shots! Part Deux: A good film, but simply not as funny as the first. It tries a little too hard.

Shrek 2: As sequels go, not bad - it's certainly better than any of the subsequent Shrek movies. But it didn't capture the freshness of the first, which itself was a bit overrated.

Wes Craven's New Nightmare: I don't know if this one is better than the original, but it's certainly the most clever. Here was meta-horror three years before Scream came along.

Rocky III: I pity the fool that says that. It's goofily entertaining, but not anywhere close to the quality of the original, or even the semi-retread Rocky II. The recent Rocky Balboa was better too.

National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation: OK, that one I'll buy. It's been years since I've seen the original, but this sequel has entered the holiday zeitgeist without question. I hear it quoted at least as much as, if not more than, A Christmas Story.

Fast Five: Definitely. This one lived up to its name; I thought the original was neither fast nor furious.

Lethal Weapon 2: I suppose you could argue the first is better because it introduced the characters, but the sequel is probably more fun because of the presence of Joe Pesci.

Gremlins 2 - The New Batch: Actually, I agree with this one. Funnier and zanier than the original. Too bad not many people saw it.

Desperado: I wouldn't call this as "good" as El Mariachi, but it's definitely slicker. And I'll admit, Salma Hayek's presence is an ... eyeful.

Star Wars Episode III - The Revenge of the Sith: Definitely the best of the prequels. I'd even argue it's superior to the somewhat lazy Return of the Jedi.

Hellboy II: The Golden Army: Yes, this one was superior to the first, because it had more of Guilliermo Del Toro's loopy energy.

Manon of the Spring: Close call, but I still give the nod to Jean de Florette.

Spider-Man 2: Absolutely superior to the first. It always bugged me that the Green Goblin in the first movie looked like a refugee from a Power Rangers episode.

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol: It made my 10 best list.

Addams Family Values: Much funnier than the rather lackadaisical original. Never understood why more people didn't embrace it. Bonus points for not featuring MC Hammer's wretched "Addams Groove."

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade: Terrific fun, thanks largely to the presence of Sean Connery, but there's no way in hell it equals Raiders, much less tops it.

For a Few Dollars More: Not QUITE as good as A Fistful of Dollars, but I was very pleasantly surprised at how good at was when I first saw it. The Good, The Bad and the Ugly whips them both, though.

Superman II: Yes, I'd still say this was better than the original, despite its patchwork production, since Richard Donner started it and Richard Lester completed it. It's not as epic as the first, but it's more entertaining because it doesn't take so long to get going.

A Shot in the Dark: Absolutely better than The Pink Panther, because Closeau was front and center this time.

Star Trek II: The Wrath of Kahn: Well, yeah.

Batman Returns: A lot of people will disagree on this one, but not me. I always thought the 1989 original was muddled and overrated. The superiority of the follow-up can be summed up in one word: meow.

Back to the Future Part II: Oh, make like a tree and get out of here. It's got a lot of really clever moments, but this one was clearly the low point of the series, because the alternate 1985 is too far over the top. Part III was a refreshing return to form.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: No argument here. Still my favorite of the lot.

The Bourne Supremacy: No. Ultimatum was better.

The Bride of Frankenstein: I actually prefer the more emotional original film, but I completely respect the original for going in a comedic direction - and working.

The Road Warrior: Absolutely. One of the first films films I saw that made me tired simply by watching it.

From Russia with Love: Well, I don't consider the Bond movies to be sequels (except for Quantum of Solace), but this one is better than the first Bond film, Dr. No. However, it's not quite as fun as Goldfinger.

X2: Definitely. The first movie was fun, but Bryan Singer really found his feet the second time around.

Before Sunset: Yes, I actually did like it better than Before Sunrise, which is saying a lot.

Evil Dead 2: Like Desperado, this movie was essentially a slicker version of its predecessor -  but it had even more imagination.

The Silence of the Lambs: People often forget that Michael Mann's Manhunter preceded this. While Man's film is certainly good, it's rather dated. Silence of the Lambs hasn't aged a day.

Terminator 2: Judgement Day: I still like the original best, but the sequel is awfully close.

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: No, it's not better than Fellowship of the Ring. I felt this one rushed too much through the story - a problem that was alleviated in the superior extended cut.

Dawn of the Dead: George Romero is to be commended for taking his series in a satirical direction, but he didn't top his chilling original.

The Dark Knight: Duh.

Toy Story 2: The wonderful original is often cited as one of the best animated films of all time, but the clearly superior sequel is cleverer and even more emotionally affecting.

Aliens: Wow, tough call, particularly because Ridley Scott and James Cameron's films are so different. But faced with a set of extended teeth, I'll have to argue that hundreds of aliens are scarier than one - and I still get a major rush from Cameron's relentless pacing.

The Godfather Part II: I get how this is supposed to be superior to the original, because it's starker and more ambitious, but it comes down to this: the original Godfather has dozens of quotable moments. Do you hear Godfather II quoted as often?

The Empire Strikes Back: Again, I understand why people say it's better than the original - it's certainly the best written and best crafted of the six- but for me, it can't top the thrill of discovery that came with the original.

Your thoughts?

REVIEW: The Hunger Games

Yes, it delivers. No, it's not one of the best movies of the year. In fact, considering some of the talent involved, it's disturbingly lacking. Nevertheless, a franchise has kicked off in high style, thanks to a girl called Katniss. Jennifer when the cameras aren't rolling.

As is always the case when a novel becomes a movie, I did not read the book first. I don't feel I can give the movie a fair judgment if my mind is constantly saying "Hey wait ..." By the same token, however, that gives me a newbie perspective that's helpful when considering a film adaptation. If I can feel like I'm not missing anything, the filmmakers have done their jobs. If you have to say "You'll understand it better if you read the book," then the film has failed on some level (cough Watchmen cough)

For the most part, I got through the exposition of The Hunger Games fine, but a few of the plot points were rather murky.  I was a little unclear, for instance on exactly why the whole affair is called The Hunger Games based on what the movie told me - I had to pick it up by inference.

Also problematic is the fact that there's a lot of action in the movie. Director Gary Ross is not skilled in this arena, and it shows. He does well with clever concepts (Pleasantville) or old-fashioned entertainment, (Seabiscuit) but action is not his forte. The action becomes hard to follow sometimes because the editing is choppy and the camera is too close to the players. One scene involving a swarm of wasps works very well; I only wish the rest of the action had been that effective.

What truly puts the movie over, then, is the cast. Some roles are more thoroughly written than others, but the actors all do fine work. Stanley Tucci and Donald Sutherland are reliable as ever, and it's nice to see Wes Bentley (American Beauty) making a comeback as the rather sinister Seneca Crane. The undervalued Elizabeth Banks is terrific as Effie Trinket, and Woody Harrelson is ideally cast as the drunken but charismatic mentor Haymitch,  Josh Hutcherson has long been one of those sturdy kid performers in movies like Bridge to Terabithia and The Kids are All Right, but here he truly shows he has leading man chops.

Outshining everyone, however, in front of and behind the camera is the luminous Jennifer Lawrence, who owns the part of Katniss from the very first scene. She's proven she has award-worthy chops (Winter's Bone) that she can handle big-budget action fare (X-Men First Class), and she elevates otherwise weak material (The Beaver). In The Hunger Games, she combines all three talents, navigating a huge production, giving it a strong emotional center and overcoming the weaknesses of the script. People who complained about her casting must be enjoying the taste of words right now.

Am I in love with the franchise? No. Am I eager to see more? Yes, especially with Lawrence on board. Here's hoping Catching Fire will be even better.

GRADE: B+

Was it THAT bad? - John Carter

By now, poor John Carter has suffered a real shellacking. The weekend it came out, the vultures pounced, with the New York Times publishing an especially unkind article that all but hung writer-director Andrew Stanton from a tree. Then it prompted a bunch of new "greatest flops ever" lists like this one and this one.

But did it really deserve all that fuss?

That's what this new column, "Was it THAT Bad?" will tackle. Periodically, I will review movies that get bad reputations of one kind or another, and will determine if they really deserved so much mud-slinging. Mind you, I won't take on movies that are obvious dreck like Jack and Jill, or most any movie with Adam Sandler, for that matter. I'm going to take on movies that look like they MIGHT be good - and if they are, I'll happily debunk the majority. If they're not, I'll join the choir.

When it comes to John Carter, I'm neither delighted nor irritated. I'm really more frustrated than anything else - not just with the movie itself, but with many reviews of it. Almost every one I read mentioned John Carter's $250 million price tag. Astronomical, to be sure, but I don't really care about that in a movie review.  I think too many critics reviewed the budget more than they did what was up there on the screen. That, in the end, is, was, and always will be, the most important factor.

I hadn't been all that interested in John Carter (the notoriously muddled ad campaign didn't help) but after writers horse-whipped it, I wanted to try to review the movie honestly. What I saw on screen was a sometimes imaginative, sometimes thrilling sci-fi adventure, that alas, was rarely focused.

I had been rooting for Stanton to succeed in live action, just like his Pixar compatriot Brad Bird did with the terrific Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol.  But Bird had the advantage of working with an existing template and putting his own spin on it, just as all the MI directors had done. Stanton had to start more or less from the ground up, and he bit off more than he could chew. The movie  looks great, and the actors are game, but the bottom lime is this: Stanton was  in love with the John Carter stories - so much so that he couldn't bear to cut sections he should have. The movie starts with too many beginnings, has a fairly decent middle section, and ends with too many endings.

It felt to me like Stanton got too caught up in trying to tackle all his favorite things. It's as if he were saying "Oh wow! I get to make an Indiana Jones movie! And a Star Wars movie! And a Tarzan movie! A Civil War epic, even! I have to include it ALL!"

And so he did. The beginning, in particular is a jumbled mess that folds back on itself at least twice, and the movie lost me within the first 20 minutes - always a fatal error. Then the movie settled down with a mid-section I kind of liked - then Stanton piled on ending after ending after ending, to the point that he made the endings of Return of the King look like a model of restraint.

Someone once told the Beatles that they should start their act like a W - you start strong, dip a little, rise again, then fall again, but come back for a great finish. That way, even if you do have dips in the mid-section, the audience will stay with you.

Unfortunately Stanton made his movie more like an M - he starts slow, builds a little, falls again, then builds a little more, but finally falls flat in the end, leaving me disappointed.   It may have been too much too expect that John Carter would be as good as Stanton's Pixar hits, Finding Nemo and WALL-E. But it doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Heaven's Gate or Battlefield Earth.

Is John Carter that bad? No, but the problem is, it's not that good either.

GRADE: C

Saving the Second Best for Last

Having finally unveiled my top 10, I now unveil my second 10 - those "almost" movies that are still each excellent in their own ways. This is presented strictly alphabetically, since ranking 20 is going too far, if you ask me. (All are available on disc)

Beginners - An utterly winning film, powered by Christopher Plummer's Oscar-winning performance. He didn't just get a career award - he's flat out wonderful as a man who comes out of the closet late in life. Ewan McGregor and Melanie Laurent are nearly as good.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II: Harry and his pals couldn't get one lousy Oscar, but they earn a spot on my list for delivering an excellent finale. I'm sure they must be so proud.

Horrible Bosses: I loved Bridesmaids too, but I laughed more at this movie.

Jane Eyre: Conventional wisdom says that modern movies can never match up to Hollywood golden age counterparts. Not this time. This version with Michael Fassbender and Mia Wasikowska may be at least as good as the 1944 version with Orson Welles and Joan Fontaine - if not better.

My Week with Marilyn: Too many people sold this movie short, saying Michelle Williams was great, but the film was only decent. I  thought it was nearly as good as 2011's other movies about movies, The Artist, Hugo and Super 8.

Martha Marcy May Marlene: Some people complained about the movie's abrupt ending, which I will not spoil. But I will say that had the ending been more concrete, the movie would not have haunted me and made this list. Elizabeth Olsen proved her family has actual talent and not just marketing finesse.

The Muppets: I almost didn't put this here, and then thought, what am I doing? I don't think I smiled wider during any other movie last year.

Tucker and Dale vs. Evil: One of the best moviegoing experiences I had last year was seeing this fiendishly clever horror spoof with a packed house that absolutely ate it up.

Win Win: Tom McCarthy makes films that are small in scale but big in emotions. Like The Station Agent and The Visitor, this movie subtly burrowed under my skin and stayed with me for a long time.

X-Men First Class: Like most people, I'm looking forward to seeing The Avengers this year. Unlike some people, I sort of doubt it'll top this terrifically retro prequel. 

The True 10 Best of 2011

Would it be too cliched of me to preface this overdue list with "better late than never?"

It would? Well, OK. Think of it as me using the old Oscar timetable, back when they used to have the show in March. That's MY kind of March Madness. (Brackets? What brackets?)

Anyway, since I am running late and all, I decided to break the rules this year. Usually I restrict my list to films that played in the Dayton area in the calendar year. However, since I was such a slacker *cough* took so long,  I decided to make my list conform to films actually released nationwide in the calendar year of 2011. That means that my list has to start with:

1. The Artist - C'mon, did you really expect this TCM nut to pick anything else? (OK, Hugo would have been an eminently reasonable guess, but more on that in a minute).
   
2. The Descendants: This movie took me on the most wide-ranging emotional journey of 2011; the screenplay is chock full of moments that are so exactly right.
   
3.  Hugo: Here's Marty's magical masterpiece. Just when I think The Man can't surprise me anymore, he makes 3D more transcendent than ever before.
   
4.  Midnight in Paris: A movie about living in the past? No, the guy who liked the Beatles when he was a teenager in the 80s can't relate to that at all, nooooo.
   
5.  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: The hypnotic visuals of this film grabbed me from the title sequence forward and they still haven't let go. Bravo to Rooney Mara for putting her own unique spin on Lisbeth Salander. Hers was the performance of the year.
   
6.  Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol:  For the pulse-pounding, jaw-clenching Burj Khalifa sequence alone, this was the action film of the year.
   
   
7.  Young Adult: This movie fragmented audiences; some people couldn't stand the film or its lead character, but I found them all too relateable. This movie hit me hard personally, in that it brought to vivid life the ideas that some people can't help being train wrecks - and some people can't help but stay on the tracks in front of them.
   
   
8. A Separation: This movie won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar this year, and its steeped in Iranian culture - yet it still offers a universal message about the perils of not truly attempting to understand one another.
   
9. Moneyball: Sports are usually an anathema to me, but what really makes this movie work is that it's not really a sports movie. It manages to find the human heart amid a stack of statistics.
   
10. Super 8: The best Steven Spielberg film of the year. In fact, it's better than either film Spielberg himself directed. I only wish Elle Fanning's terrific performance hadn't gotten lost in the shuffle. 

Most of these are available on disc; save The Artist and A Separation, which are still in theaters. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo arrives on disc Tuesday, MI:4 arrives April 17.

My runners-up will follow in another post, along with my choices for the worst films of the year. Trying to spread the wealth, ya know!

Oscar predix 12: The Best Pictures

And now on to the best film awards...

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse 


I was going to do a breakdown of a for and against for each picture, but what would be the point? The Artist is the heaviest favorite to win in some time. If it doesn't win, I'll be shocked. And even a little mad, since it's my favorite of the lot.

Will/should win: The Artist 

Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango 








Barring an upset by the two small-studio films, I think this is pretty clearly Rango's. And I have a question for the Academy. Cars 2 is certainly not up to Pixar's high standards.  But are the DreamWorks sequels Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots REALLY better?

Will/should win: Rango.


Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
 
This one is a bit of a toss-up, as I can see any number of the contenders winning. I'm going to place my best with the case that received the most publicity - the freeing of the West Memphis Three, as chronicled in the Paradise Lost films.

Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)

Praise for A Separation has been SO sky high, I think it's the likely victor.

I'll be posting on Facebook and maybe tweeting too live as the show goes on.  Feel free to join me for random attempts at hilarity and insight!

Oscar predix: The actors

And now for the nominees with a Y chromosome...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branah, My Week with Marilyn

Why he might win: He's delightful in the film, and he was allowed to show a light, comedic side we too seldom see.

Why he might not: The role may seem slight. He isn't Christopher Plummer.

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Why he might win: He pitched a terriffic change-up, playing a crucial role in the film and proving he has range beyond "lovable raunchy guy."

Why he might not: Some people may still struggle with the image change. And he isn't Christopher Plummer.

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Why he might win: He gave a typically solid performance in a film with a lot of emotional heft. Strangely, he hasn't won yet.

Why he might not: This is really the kind of role he could do in his sleep. And he isn't Christopher Plummer.

 Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Why he might win: He IS Christopher Plummer. He's won just about every kudo under the sun so far, and the nice thing is, he truly deserves it. This isn't just a career valedictory; he's wonderful in the film.

Why he might not: Because the cosmos has split in half. You can pretty well bet the ranch on this one.

 
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Why he might win: He gave a showy performance, and for some reason, he's never nanaged to win this award. If anyone has even the slimmist chance of taking it from Plummer, it's him.

But ...

Why he might not: He isn't Christopher Plummer. While his movie managed to pull a surprise Best Picture nom, it has also sparked a lot of grumbling.

Will/should win: Plummer

BEST ACTOR

Demián Bichir, A Better Life











Why he might win: His supporters pushed for a nomination for a movie that flew under a lot of people's radar. Sometimes those types of performances win (see Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose.)



Why he might not: Not enough people saw the film.

George Clooney, The Descendants

Why he might win: He's had another good year, he's extremely well liked, and he got to display an edge we very rarely see from him (i.e. he cries).

Why he night not: He won only a few years ago, for Syriana.

Jean Dujardin, The Artist



Why he might win: He's charmed all of Hollywood, and other viewers of The Artist, with his delightful guilelessness. Has won most of the precursors.

Why he might not: Voters might perfer Clooney's broader range of emotions.


Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Why he might win: About time! After years of putting in strong performances, he's never managed a nod till now. He really should have been nominated for playing Lee Harvey Oswald in JFK.

Why he might not: It's an emotionally pinched performance, where he finds one note and holds it very well.

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Why he might win: He turned in one of his best performances in years as Billy Beane, and with The Tree of Life also under his belt, he has appeared in two Best Picture nominees. Only his Tree costar, Jessica Chastain, can also claim that.


Why he might not: The role's not quite as flashy as some of the competition.

Oscar Predix 12 : Actresses

Now for the analysis to get a little more in-depth.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: It's Oscar bait (playing in drag), voters will admire this was a passion project for Close (she produced, co-wrote the screenplay and even wrote song lyrics) and rather remarkably, Close doesn't have an Oscar yet.

Why she might not: The film is a whole is generally regarded as underwhelming and not as well seen as the other films in the category. 

Viola Davis, The Help

Why she might win: She's due. Overdue, one could argue. She's consistently great in everything she does, and she shone in a big box office hit. She has won most of the precursors.

Why she might not: There's a slim chance of there being an upswing of support for Streep, who has not won since the early 80s. But don't bank on it. This is Davis' to lose.

Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Why she might win: She underwent a remarkable transformation. Just think: that's the same girl who dumped Zuckerberg in The Social Network? Even more impressively, she made the role her own, even in the long shadow of Noomi Rapace.

Why she might not: Too soon. If this role is any indication, she'll be back. And the competition is just too strong.

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Why she might win: She's only the greatest living American actress. And her transformation into the controversial and legendary prime minister is remarkable. Though she seems to be nominated every year, she hasn't actually won since Sophie's Choice some 30 years ago. 
 
Why she might not: The film itself underwhelmed a lot of people and might not be cause enough for Streep to be back in the winner's circle just yet.

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Why she might win: She doesn't look or sound much like Marilyn in real life, but she absolutely nailed her portrayal of the legend. She's on her third nomination, so the Academy loves her.

Why she might not: The film is (wrongly) considered slight by some. As much as a roll she's on now, it's plainly evident she'll be back. Her time will come.

Should win: Mara
Will win: Davis

Best Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Why she might win: She could win on a sweep for The Artist. Voters might find it fun to pair her with Jean Dujardin, the likely Best Actor winner.

Why she might not: There really hasn't been much buzz about her in the ramp-up to the Oscars. She's a dark horse at best.

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Why she might win: She has had an absolutely fantastic and breakout year, having been excellent in all her other films of 2011, including Take Shelter, The Debt and the film she really should have been nominated for, The Tree of Life.

Why she might not: Her nominated co-stars in The Help have the most memorable moments in the movie. At the rate Chastain is going, we'll certainly see her nominated again soon.

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Why she might win: She was the scene-stealer of the year, and a hilarious one to boot.

Why she might not: Comedies aren't taken seriously enough.

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Why she might win: She had a nice little comeback after being nominated years ago for Tumbleweeds, but not gaining much attention since.

Why she might not: Neither her movie, nor her campaign, has much momentum.


Octavia Spencer, The Help 

Why she might win: She has owned this role, even before the movie came out, playing Minny in the audio book. She's won most if not all percursors. And I think voters like the idea of making history by having Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress going to African-Americans.

Why she might not: Well, there was always the Juliette Binoche scenario ...

Will win: Spencer
Should win: Bejo, who's nearly as delightful as her co-star.

Oscar Predix 12: Director/Screnplay predix

Continuing with the Oscar predictions, we move on to more prominent craft categories: namely writing and directing.


Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Will/Should Win: Midnight in Paris.

This is a race between the favorite The Artist and Woody Allen's biggest hit in years. I could see it going to The Artist if the Academy wants to reward the ingenuity of the idea - but then again, the idea of the movie is that its beauty lies in the visuals and not so much in the words. Words, however, are a large part of the beauty of Midnight in Paris, and if it doesn't win this, it gets nothing.The film's hefty fanbase will see that doesn't happen.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Peter Straughan and Bridget O’Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Will/Should win: The Descendants

This race is between my pick for the best film of the year, The Descendants, and Moneyball, in which two of Hollywood's top writers took a very technical book and turned it into a very human story. However, The Descendants will win for one very simple reason: it's the emotional knockout of the bunch. Voters vote with their hearts, and that's all over The Descendants. 


Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
 
Will win: Hazanavicus
Should win: Scoresese

This race is between the greatest living American director (Marty) and the very clever newcomer (Michel), both of whom wrote impassioned love letters to the movies themselves. It is entirely possible that they might reward Hazanavicus for his writing and give this one to Scorsese, not only for producing one of his most uplifting movies, but for being one of the few directors to show that 3D can be a vital and beautiful storytelling tool.

That said, Scorsese won fairly recently for The Departed. And Havanavicius just won the DGA award, which is a pretty strong indicator. Some people may see this as a repeat of 2003, when an auteur (Roman Polanksi) beat out a promising newcomer (Rob Marshall, who has not lived up to that promise since). The major difference? Polanski didn't have an Oscar already.

I liked the way the site In Contention put it: 'As much as people like to make parallels with the 2002 Rob Marshall/Roman Polanski situation that vaguely make sense on paper, this isn't looking like much of a race. Michel Hazanavicius has the DGA, the BAFTA, the BFCA Award and even some major critics' prizes. Martin Scorsese has a Golden Globe. Do the math. "The Artist" is too well-loved -- and too much a product of directorial ingenuity -- not to win here."

Besides, if my prediction is correct, that makes me look wise. If my prediction is wrong, my favorite director gets the prize. Either way, I win! 

Oscar predix 12: Below the line

And so we begin 2012's Oscar predictions with the "bathroom break" awards: In other words, for the technical category and short films awards that the average viewer doesn't care about. Most of my blog's readers aren't average viewers, but even if you are a more casual fan, you DO need these categories to help win your Oscar office pool. After all, the major categories are pretty well set; the techs are much more in flux.


Short Film (Animated)
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Will/should win: I've seen all the nominees this year. Maybe Pixar had an off year with Cars 2, but they're still firing on all cylinders with La Luna, which is typically ingenious work by them. However, A Morning Stroll is very clever, with its multiple styles of animation, and it's the funniest of the lot. So it's a possible spoiler. The overall field here is underwhelming.

Short Film (Live Action)
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Will/should win: This is a particularly strong group this year; with the possible exception of the slight but enjoyable, Pentecost, I could see any of these taking the Oscar. I'm going with the emotionalism of The Shore, a very affecting drama  starring Ciaran Hinds and directed by Terry George, who made Hotel Rwanda. I would not rule out Time Freak, which, like last year's winner God of Love. is a very clever little comedy.

Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Should win: Saving Face

My personal favorite, Saving Face, an amazing story of Pakistani women prevailing over acid attacks, could very well win, but my gut tells me the better-known story of the tsunami that ravaged Japan will score more points.

 Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Tree of Life

Logic would dictate that Tree of Life would win here; it won the ASC award, and it fulfills the "pretty!" prerequisite typical of many winners. I think it deserves to win, not only for its beauty, but for its well-executed hand-held camerawork.

HOWEVER - a lot of people HATE The Tree of Life, and as knowledgeable Oscar prognosticators have pointed out, you have to go back 62 years to find the last movie that won cinematography without any other techs. And sure, Emmanuel Lubezki is due, but tell that to Roger Deakins.  Therefore, I'm thinking the overall love for The Aritst will carry the day.


Art Direction 
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Will/Should win: The opening five minutes of Hugo should seal the deal for that film.

Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Will/should win: Hugo is the most opulent and it's a Best Picture nominee.


Film Editing
The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Kevin Tent
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker 
Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen

Will win: The Artist
 Should win: Moneyball

I wouldn't rule out another win for Thelma Schoonmaker, but I'm guessing The Artist's overall ingenuity prevails here. Moneyball might seem like a surprising personal pick for me, but I really admire the way it jumped back and forth in time to tell the backstory of Billy Beane.


Makeup
Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston, and Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng 
The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Will/should win: Here's where Harry Potter finally wins something.


Music (Original Score)
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams

Will/Should win: The Artist's score is too delightful to ignore. And I actually think Kim Novak's ridiculous complaint about the use of the Vertigo music will help the film, not hurt it.


Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett

Will/should win: The Muppets had BETTER win this one, or whatever screen I'm watching this on will have a big hole in it.

Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Monyeball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Will/should win: Hugo for both.

This category can be hard to be predict, and I'm inclined to think most voters who aren't in the sound branch don't know the difference. However, since the silent movie wasn't nominated here, I think voters will go for the Best Picture nominee that sounds great.


Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Will/should win: This will mark the third time that an Andy Serkis performance carries its film to Oscar, after The Two Towers and King Kong/

Reviewing the Super Bowl movie trailers

Most people who know me know I don't give a pigskin about the Super Bowl, although this year I did have kind of a tangential interest. You see, the Mara family owns the New York Giants, and I have crushes on both Kate (127 Hours) and Rooney (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). It's almost enough to make me wish I were into football.

Since I'm not, however, I shall resort merely to talking about the movie trailers that were on last night. CinemaBlend has them all on this page.

21 Jump Street

Color me unimpressed. I just don't find it that funny. Also, I have a question for the studio. Emma Stone is in your movie. Why haven't you made this evident in the trailers?

Act of Valor

Novel idea to cast active duty Navy SEALS in a movie. We all know the Seals are badasses. That does NOT necessarily mean the movie will be badass. In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion it won't be, because I fear the filmmakers will assume the SEALS alone are good enough. A good story and director will help too.

The Avengers

OK, NOW I'm getting a little more excited for this thing!

Battleship

On the other hand, I still think this looks like Transformers: Wet of the Water. Yawn.

The Dictator

I thought Borat was overrated, and I thought Bruno was a mess, but I have to admit, this looks pretty funny. The bit where he shoots the other track runners made me laugh out loud.

GI Joe: Retaliation

No, I guess people don't have to like your first movie for there to be a sequel.

The Hunger Games

Now this I'm all over, even though I haven't read the books. But I'm a fan of Jennifer Lawrence!

John Carter

While I believe The Hunger Games will be the big hit of the spring, I sense this movie may be the big-budget disappointment. Something just seems off here. It looks -- ordinary. Kinda like the vibe I got from Prince of Persia. Oh, you don't remember that one either?

The Lorax

IMAX Tree-D? That's cute. Since it's by the folks who made Despicable Me. I'm hopeful.

On the whole, though, thought it was a rather unremarkable year for movie ads. Save for Avengers, none of the spots changed my opinion on a movie, for good or ill.

New movies Feb. 3 2012

Big Miracle: Drew Barrymore saves the whales. Can't muster up a lot of interest for this, even though the reviews aren't half bad.

Chronicle: Initially, I rolled my eyes at yet another "found footage" movie, especially since the two most recent ones, Apollo 18 and The Devil Inside, are allegedly awful. But this one is pulling down some surprisingly strong reviews - strong enough that I may check it out.

The Woman in Black: Even though I was never a huge Potterphile, I am very curious to see how Daniel Radcliffe fares in his first big post-Potter movie role. The good news is, it's being released under the legendary Hammer films banner. The bad news is, CBS Films is selling it with cheesy Paranormal Activity-type ads showing people cowering in theaters. Audience participation ads tend to be a sign of iffy quality. We'll see. 

REVIEW: The Artist

Near the beginning of That's Entertainment, this fabulous number plays, and Frank Sinatra said "You know, you can wait around and hope, but I'll tell you, you'll never see the likes of this again."

The Artist has proven Frank wrong. We have seen the likes of that again, thanks to this enchanting film.

That's not to say The Artist ranks alongside the greatest films of Hollywood's golden age, or the silent era. Writer-director Michel Hazanavicius would be the first to admit that. But what his movie does do is illuminate the past brilliantly,  while at the same time carving out a unique identity for itself.

Some people dismiss The Artist, claiming that it only works because it dares to be silent. Mel Brooks proved that untrue 36 years ago. His Silent Movie had some funny moments, but it was nowhere near what it aspired to be. It ended up as a mildly diverting lark. That was the film where the silence came off as a gimmick.

What elevates The Artist is that it doesn't merely shut up and pay homage to Douglas Fairbanks et al. It pays homage to the power of movies in general. Its plot borrows heavily from Singin' in the Rain (a talkie about the switch from silent to sound) and A Star is Born (grand old star's career fades while the fresh new face the old star found brightens). Now that's pedigree.

But the clearest evidence of how The Artist stands on its own is, interestingly, when it co-opts an existing piece of music. The movie has a delightful score of its own by Ludovic Bource, but one crucial scene plays to Bernard Herrmann's love theme from Vertigo. It shouldn't work - the scene in the Hitchcock movie is one of the most memorable in all of cinema, and that's my favorite score to boot. Yet somehow, Havanvicius takes Herrmann's music and makes it work in The Artist's context.

Deserving of just as much credit is the terrific cast. Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are both wonderful, not merely resorting to pantomime, but creating full-bodied characters. John Goodman is perfectly cast as a cigar-puffing studio boss.

Such is my affection for The Artist, that reading some Facebook comments about the Oscar nominations made my blood boil, especially when once person said "Who cares about some silent movie that only 10 people saw?"

I was about to fire back with a sharp-tongued response, but I remained silent. Sadly, I know The Artist isn't going to be everyone's cup of tea. It's never going to have the mass success of another throwback like Chicago. But like Sinatra, I'll tell you  - if more people were into movies like The Aritst, movies as a whole would be a great deal better.


GRADE: A+

New Movies Jan. 27 2012

Can it be? Posts from Sir Critic three days in a row??

Well, yes, it can, because one thing I'm going to start doing again in this cyberspace is offering sharp but pithy thoughts on the new releases Friday. So that established ....

The title links go to Metacritic, which I find to be a more helpful barometer of critical opinion then Rotten Tomatoes (ducks fried green one).

A Dangerous Method: Cronenberg's latest hasn't gotten as much attention as one might guess, considering the subject matter (Jung v Freud) and the cast, but I'll check it out because Cronenberg has never bored me.

The Descendants: Goes wider after getting a bevy of Oscar nominations. See it. You must.  My review.

The Grey - No matter how good or bad it is, this will forever be known as the movie wherein Liam Neeson punches a werewolf - truly a strange turn in his late career as an action star. Reviews for this are actually pretty decent, but I'll probably still avoid it because I'm not a fan of director Joe Carnahan. I thought Narc was good but overrated, and the dreary, dull Smokin' Aces still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Man on a Ledge: At first I was kind of interested in seeing this, mainly because it had a decent trailer and Elizabeth Banks. Regrettably, the negative reviews are scaring me away. However, the lovely and witty Ms. Banks did a very amusing trailer commentary. If she could do this for the entire movie, I might actually check it out.



One for the Money: Katherine Heigl is in it. Sorry, but by now that's an automatic no.

Ah, January.

Oscar reax part deux

Continuing from where I left off with Oscar ...

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Clearly this is a two-film race between two odes to the past: The Artist and Midnight in Paris. I'm leaning toward The Artist because it has the ingenious factor going for it, and I think the overall affection for the film will carry the day.
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Peter Straughan and Bridget O’Connor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 Here's another two-film race, between The Descendants and Moneyball. Moneyball has a good shot because it has two A-list writers adapting a book that people said couldn't be a movie. Still, The Desecendants seems to be better liked to me, and it's a more emotional piece. Emotionalism tends to carry the day.


Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango 

So Pixar gets snubbed for the first time in this category. but that wasn't a great surprise. Does Cars 2 deserve all the scorn it got? No. Does it merit an Oscar nomination? No. I'm willing to bet it's better than the two nominated DreamWorks sequels, but Rango's quirkiness gives it an edge. I'm at a disadvantage in this category because I haven't seen A Cat in Paris or Chico & Rita. Then again, few people have.


Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)

A Separation has all kinds of acclaim, so that's my best guess.


Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse


OK, OK, so A  lot of people didn't "get" Tree of Life. But no matter how much that film makes you feel like saying "Derp," if you deny the cinematography, you are willfully blind. Hugo's lush 3D photography could take the prize, though.

Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
War Horse

The Artist could win in a sweep. but I think Dante Ferretti's electorate, resplendent sets for Hugo will stick the most with viewers.


Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Hey, the film directed by Madonna got nominated! (rolls eyes). Most likely The Artist (again).


Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated


I'm guessing the movie that helped free murder suspects from prison (Paradise Lost 3) gets the nod.



Film Editing
The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Kevin Tent
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker 
Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen 

Hugo or The Artist. I lean toward Hugo, which is flashier.

Makeup
Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston, and Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk, and Yolanda Toussieng 
The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Hey Harry. here's your Oscar!

Music (Original Score)
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams

Most likely The Artist (again), although I could see Hugo taking this too.

Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, and Siedah Garrett

Sheeeez. Sometimes I think this category ought to go the way of Best Dance Direction.  Muppets easy.



Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Monyeball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

These tend to be hard to predict. Hell, The Ghost and the Darkness won this award. I'll guess Hugo for both, since it's a Best Picture nominee. BTW, why couldn't Super 8 have been nominated instead of the robots?



Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

It took forever for the Academy to recognize an animated film could be a Best Picture nominee; I'm not sure why people seriously thought Andy Serkis would get a nomination for motion capture work. However, an Oscar for the people who helped turn him into an ape? It's been done before (King Kong), it can be done again.

Oscar (not) the Grouch

Over the past couple of days I had been feeling rather guilty about never putting together an Oscar nominations predictions piece. This is the first time since the mid-90s I've not done it. As it has so often done in the recent past, life happened to me while I was busy making other plans.

Well, thanks a million, life! I'm kinda glad I didn't do a predictions piece this year, because it would contain several variations of "Whoops! Got THAT wrong!"  So embarrassment spared, I will simply react to the nominees as presented Tuesday morning.

BEST PICTURE

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo 
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse 

The only major surprise here was Extremely Loud getting tapped after all of the precursors had ignored it. Personally, I'm terrified of the film, since the trailer makes it look like precious schmaltz, and I loathe most of the movies by Stephen Daldry (The Hours, The Reader). No matter, however. The film has zero chance of winning, although I think The Artist has probably got it for turning a gimmick into something, well, artistic. More to the point, it's delightful. But The Descendants is probably a strong second, and Hugo a decent third.

BEST DIIRECTOR

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Malick took what some people said should have been Fincher's slot, and while I would have preferred Fincher myself,  I understand the thinking. Among directors, Malick is a legend. Fincher isn't quite there yet. This is a race between another legend (Marty) and a newcomer (Michel), both of whom made loving homages to the early history of movies. Since he's Scorsese, and because he gave his picture such a wondrous 3D visual style, I tend to tap him for director, since Hazanavicius' movie will probably win picture and screenplay.

BEST ACTOR

Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

 Some people favor Clooney, and while he ran an impressive emotional gamut, he won fairly recently, for Syriana. I favor the boundless charm of Dujardin, with Pitt as a possible spoiler. Finally, while I have great respect for Gary Oldman, I'm lukewarm on his Tinker Tailor perf. As a friend of mine facetiously said, "Gary Oldmann should get an Oscar for being able to hold a completely emotionless look on his face for 2.5 hours."

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

I am absolutely DELIGHTED Ms. Mara made the cut here when many said she wouldn't - it made up for Dragon Tattoo not scoring any other major nominations. She would be my vote to win, but she won't - I think that honor will most likely go to Davis, who's an emotional powerhouse in The Help, and who has been so good in so many movies that it's well nigh time for her ship to come in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Like many others, I was sorry, although not altogether surprised to see AMPAS snub Albert Brooks for his great work in Drive. As Mr. Brooks himself put it before the nominations, "Tomorrow I find out if I have to go to any more events that Christopher Plummer wins." This is Plummer in a walk. If someone is second, it ain't even close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

I was very sad to see Shailene Woodley's sassy and touching performance in The Descendants get overlooked; my guess is McTeer took her slot, and as it happens, I think McTeer is the only one who's a long shot. I could see any of the other four getting it. AMPAS might pair up Spencer with Davis. Or they might pair Bejo with Duajardin. Or they might reward Chastain for being great not only in The Help but in 62 other movies last year. The toughest race to call. I'll get back to you on that one, and I'll get back to you soon on the other Oscar categories.

For now, for people lamenting the lack of nominations for Drive, Dragon Tattoo et al, it's important to remember that the Academy likes its films to be happy or tear-jerking, not in-your-face antisocial. As In Contention astutely observed,

"...no nominations for "Shame" and "We Need to Talk About Kevin" -- including snubs for two of the top performances of the year -- combined with somewhat unexpected major nominations for "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" and "War Horse" to go along with the expected inclusions of "The Artist," "The Help" and "Midnight in Paris," as well as a Best Picture miss for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," all adds up to one thing: the Academy likes its collective heart warmed, not disturbed. We already knew that, of course, so it's a point less learned than solidified. And very important to keep in mind."

 In other words, Oscar is many things, but on Hollywood Boulevard, he's not a grouch.