Oscar nomination predictions 2010

The Oscar nominations come out Tuesday morning, so it's time to roll out my predictions. If my analysis seems half-hearted or just plain wrong-headed, I apologize, but I have fallen victim to an occupational hazard. As I type this, I am still lost in the haze created by a stupefyingly pretentious slog of a movie called A  Single Man. Oy.  When I got out I swore it was already 2012.

Anyway, on with the predix. Below-the-line categories are after the jump. I cannot claim to know enough about the foreign films, documentaries, or shorts to make predictions there. Any comments or questions on my analysis will be welcome.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Alternates

The Blind Side
Crazy Heart
(500) Days of Summer

The sure things here are Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air. Those would be the five under the old system. With 10 nominees this year, Up is likely, as beloved as it is, the rest are shaky.


BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigleow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Alternates

Neill Blomkamp, District 9
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen A Serious Man
Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon


I'm pretty confident in this group, Daniels is the one I am least certain about. If the go for an old pro instead, they go for Eastwood. Or the could go auteur-y and go for Haneke


BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Alternates
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Tobey Maguire, Brothers

I'm very confident in this group. Any spoilers here are unlikely.


BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Alternates

Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Saorise Ronan, The Lovely Bones

I'm even more confident in the actresses. I would be shocked if these were not the five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Slightly tougher category to predict, but it's really immaterial. Waltz is walking away with this award.

Alternates
Matt Damon, Invictus
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Alfred Molina, An Education

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Alternates
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Maggie Gyllenahaal, Crazy Heart

The Up in the Air ladies are locks, as is Mo'Nique. Kruger gets in on the strength of her film, and Moore gets in on reputation.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

500 Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

District 9
An Education
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

BEST SONG

“(I Want To) Come Home” from Everybody’s Fine
“I See You” from “Avatar
“Almost There” from The Princess and the Frog
“The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart
“You’ve Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” from An Education

BEST SCORE

Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Informant
Star Trek
Up

BEST ART DIRECTION

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

BEST COSTUMES

Coco Before Chanel
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

BEST EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basters
Up in the Air

BEST SOUND MIXING

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

BEST SOUND EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up

BEST MAKEUP

District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnasssus
Star Trek

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek