Oscar nomination predictions, 2011

This year’s Oscar nominations arrive this Tuesday, so my predictions arrive now. As I usually do, I ask readers to bear in mind a couple of very important principles.

Nobody Knows Anything: I like to think I'm pretty good at predicting the Oscars, but they almost always throw in at least one loopy surprise that throws me. I've given up on trying to predict such loopy surprises, because I'm not good at that. So generally speaking, my predictions err on the side of safety.

Deserve's Got Nothin' to Do With It: Never, ever, ever use "It was so good" as your rationale for predicting tricker Oscar nominations. More often than not, you just end up looking silly. You start with your favorites and use reasonable guesswork from there. So here's the best of my guesswork.


BEST PICTURE

1. Black Swan
2. The Fighter
3. Inception
4. The Kids are All Right
5. The King’s Speech
6. 127 Hours
7. The Social Network
8. The Town
9. Toy Story 3
10. True Grit

Alternates: Winter’s Bone, Blue Valentine

In the end I felt safest going with the Producers Guild nominations. The shakiest best are 127 Hours and The Town, but I include it because it's the kind of classical storytelling the Academy likes. 127 Hours has faded from view, but I ultimately include it because Franco's performance is SO  central to it, and that performance is not in dispute.



BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Alternates:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter



Frith and Franco are locks, Bridges and Eisenberg very likely, fifth spot is the trickiest. I went with Duvall esentially because, well - he's Duvall. Bardem is gaining heat and is the likeliest spoiler.

BEST ACTRESS

Anette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine


Alternates:

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Julianne Moore, The Kids are All Right

Portman, Bening and Lawrence are in for sure. But I'm going out on a limb a bit with this category. I think those who see True Grit will realize that Steinfeld is the lead. It's HER story.
Her character is in EVERY scene. So even though she's being pushed in supporting, I think, the Academy will recognize category fraud, just as they did with Keisha Castle Hughes in Whale rider. If Steinfeld goes to supporting, sub Kidman, although she's shaky because Rabbit Hole just hasn't built up much heat. I'm rooting for Moore to pull an upset, though. I liked her better than Bening.






BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right




Alternates:


Matt Damon, True Grit
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network


Bale, Garfield and Rush are your best bets, I go with Renner because he's well liked in a well liked film, and with Ruffalo who is grossly overdue for a nomination.







BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helana Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom


Alternates:



Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Dainne Weist, Rabbit Hole


Amy, Bonham Carter and Leo are in, and I feel very comfortable with Kunis, who has gained traction. That leaves slot five up for grabs, and I think Weaver is the most likely spoiler.




BEST DIRECTOR



Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russel, The Fighter



Alternates:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
The Coen Brothers, True Grit




Sticking with the DGA noms seems pretty safe.





BEST ANIMATED FILM



How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3


Alternates:

Despicable Me
The Illusionist



There will only be three nominees this year. Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon are secure. Tangled is vulnerable, but I'm sticking with it because it generated a lot of goodwill as a return to form for Disney. 


Remainder of the picks after the jump









BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Kids are All Right





Spoilers: Another Year, Blue Valentine




BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone



Spoilers: 127 Hours, Rabbit Hole, The Ghost Writer



BEST ART DIRECTION

Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit




BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit



Spoilers: 127 Hours, Shutter Island



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit



Spoilers: Get Low, Robin Hood



BEST EDITING

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network



Spoilers: Shutter Island, True Grit




BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alice in Wonderland
How to Tran Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
Never Let Me Go


BEST SONG

“I See the Light,” Tangled
“Shine,” Waiting for Superman
“You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me,” Burlesque
“We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3



BEST SOUND DESIGN
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
True Grit



BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Inception
127 Hours
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Toy Story 3



BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy



Spoiler: Scott Pilgrim vs. The World


If anyone wants to know why I made certain picks, feel free to question/debate me in the comments. Analysis of the nominations/early predictions will follow Tuesday's announcements.